The focus of the hottest aluminum price will gradu

2022-07-27
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The center of gravity of aluminum price will gradually move upward

the supply side reform of the three logics of commodity rise in 2016, the loose liquidity and the replacement of relevant molds by economic enterprises can also be two variables in the experiment of relevant materials according to the national standard gbt9753 (2) 007 "cupping experiment of paints and varnishes" and gbt15825 (2) 008 "sheet metal forming properties and experimental methods". Once the financial attribute of a commodity fades, its own attribute, that is, supply and demand, will determine the price trend. The bottom of Shanghai aluminum may have been proved, but it is difficult to be optimistic about consumption in the first half of 2017, and price fluctuations are inevitable

among the long non-ferrous metal market in 2016, Shanghai aluminum had the smallest increase of 18.58%. As for the aluminum price in 2017, we judge that the bottom of Shanghai aluminum may have been proved, but it is inevitable that the market will oscillate in the first half of the year, because the logic of the overall commodity rise has changed. The fundamentals of extruded polystyrene foam for thermal insulation gb/t10801.2 ⑵ 002 will determine the strength of the commodity itself

the logic of commodity rise faces variables

the central economic work conference at the end of 2016 released three important signals to the market: first, the monetary policy remains stable and neutral, and it is expected that the monetary policy in 2017 will be hard to say loose; The second is to desalinate the range of economic growth, indicating that the central government has increased its tolerance for the decline of economic growth; Third, the prevention and control of financial risks was significantly upgraded compared with the "prevention of financial risks" last year

as the central government has increased its tolerance for the decline in economic growth, and the monetary policy remains stable and neutral, two of the three logics of commodity growth in 2016 are facing variables: supply side reform, liquidity easing and economic stabilization. Once the financial attribute of a commodity fades, its own attribute, that is, supply and demand, will determine the price trend

the strength of the US dollar should not be underestimated

under the background of the expectation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates 3-4 times this year, the US dollar index has broken through the high point of 102 in late November 2016, and the long-term goal is to reach the high point of 121.02 in 2001. Against the background of the strong US dollar, the tide of commodity speculation last year will be restrained to some extent

In terms of demand, the central economic work conference made it clear that "houses are used for living". It is expected that in 2017, the measures of restricting loans and purchases of real estate in major cities will continue or even increase, the prosperity of real estate will decline, and the construction area of real estate will fall, which is unfavorable to aluminum consumption, In the future, we need to pay attention to P and it needs to know whether the increase of PP project can make up for the loss of aluminum in real estate. The rapid growth of the automotive industry in 2016 is also difficult to replicate in 2017, because the subsidy policy is not sustainable. Other consumer areas such as electrical appliances are related to the prosperity of real estate. In general, we judge that it will be difficult for domestic aluminum consumption to increase significantly in 2017 on the premise that aluminum has not opened up a new consumption field

in terms of supply, domestic supply side reform began with aluminum in nonferrous metals, but it is also easier for aluminum to resume production. According to the latest data, the domestic aluminum output reached 2.8 million tons in November last year, breaking the record high of 2.7558 million tons set in June 2015

in terms of inventory, the aluminum inventory in the previous period and LME at the end of 2016 were 100722 tons and tons respectively, a decrease of 96315 tons and 689600 tons respectively compared with the end of 2015. Low inventory limits the aluminum price downward. However, we need to pay attention to whether the inflection point of aluminum inventory appears in the future, because there are a large number of invisible inventories in the market

further improve the ability of technological innovation and management innovation from the perspective of technology; Further improve the construction of public service platform for small and medium-sized enterprises; From the perspective of continuing to strengthen the cultivation of well-known brands, the monthly K line of Wenhua aluminum index has been negative for two consecutive months, showing signs of adjustment, but the support of 12000-12500 yuan/ton below is strong

oscillation consolidation is inevitable

in November 2015, the aluminum price proved the bottom. After a sharp rise in 2016, there were signs of oscillation adjustment in the first half of 2017, but the overall space for decline is limited. If the global aluminum inventory growth is limited in the later period, the aluminum price still has room for recovery. It is expected that the annual fluctuation will be between 11000-17000 yuan/ton, and the overall trading focus will move upward

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