The foreign trade situation in the second half of

2022-07-26
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In the second half of the year, the foreign trade situation was not optimistic, and the pressure on exports increased.

in the second half of the year, the foreign trade situation was not optimistic, and the pressure on exports increased.

June 29, 2016

[China coating information] the pressure on China's foreign trade in the second half of the year and "Paul said that uncertainty factors increased. Although the Federal Reserve has delayed raising interest rates, it may still be able to do so in the second half of the year. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar may remain stable in the range, thus appreciating against other currencies, adding downward pressure on exports. The brexit event of the UK will have a certain impact on the world economy, making China's foreign demand face greater uncertainty in the second half of the year. Analysts believe that in the above context, the improvement of the economy of resource countries and the drive of foreign direct investment may be important supporting factors for China's exports in the second half of the year. The "the Belt and Road" and the construction of free trade zones will also provide impetus for exports

export growth under pressure

insiders predict that export growth will continue to decline slightly in the coming months, import growth may repeat, and foreign trade as a whole is still weak

Xugao, chief economist of Everbright Securities, believes that external demand is expected to remain stable in the coming months under the condition that the expectation of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve is weakened and the risk of external economic slowdown is reduced. The RMB effective exchange rate remains stable, which will promote the overall stability of exports. The export growth rate will continue to decline slightly in the coming months

Liu Tao, a senior researcher at the financial research center of Bank of communications, said that export growth in the third quarter may face greater pressure. The leading indicators of foreign trade are not optimistic. The leading index of China's foreign trade exports in May was 33.1, down 0.7 from the previous month. There is still great uncertainty about the recovery prospects of major economies in the world. In particular, the recent employment data in the United States is significantly lower than market expectations, and China's foreign demand environment has not fundamentally improved

according to Liu Tao, the recent survey conducted by the Ministry of Commerce on 20 provinces and cities across the country shows that enterprises generally reflect that this year's foreign trade situation is more complex and severe than last year, and the difficulties tend to intensify. Judging from the monthly export of last year, the export of last month was basically maintained at US $billion. The high base made it difficult to achieve positive year-on-year growth in the third quarter of this year and beyond

as for import, Liu Tao said that the growth rate of import in the third quarter may be repeated. Judging from the fact that the recent US core PCE price index and non farm employment are lower than expected, it is difficult to reach the bottom line of interest rate increase set by the Federal Reserve in the short term. Affected by the lower than expected U.S. economy, the price of international bulk commodities, including crude oil, may fall back periodically, and the quantity of China's imported commodities may fluctuate with the changes of domestic investment demand and inventory space

xieyaxian, chief analyst of macro research at China Merchants Securities, said that imports continued to be constrained by demand in the second half of the year. In the second half of the year, domestic demand may still be weak, but if commodity prices remain above the current prices, the year-on-year impact will be conducive to import growth. As China mainly imports bulk commodities and exports less, the stabilization and rebound of global bulk commodity prices may make the scale of China's foreign trade surplus this year slightly smaller than last year

according to the report "2016 China's economic outlook analysis" recently released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China's import decline may narrow this year, and the annual import growth rate is expected to decline by 5-7%

impact or transmission of brexit

insiders believe that the pressure on exports in the second half of the year is increasing. On the one hand, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates in the second half of the year, and the US dollar index will fluctuate strongly. In order to guard against financial risks, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar will be managed to maintain a range stability in the second half of the year, which will lead to the appreciation of RMB against other currencies and increase downward pressure on exports. On the other hand, the EU is China's largest trading partner. If the UK finally leaves the EU, it will bring greater uncertainty to China's foreign trade. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, last year, the EU became the largest trading partner of China for the 11th consecutive year. The temperature and humidity of the working environment of China universal material tester will have a certain impact on electronic components. China has become the second largest trading partner of the EU for the 12th consecutive year

liudongliang, senior analyst of the asset management department of China Merchants Bank, believes that if the brexit of the UK leads to a new round of recession or pessimistic expectations in the EU, the impact will be transmitted to China through the trade and investment chain. The EU is China's largest trading partner, and China's foreign trade has been particularly affected, thus increasing the downward pressure on the economy

Zhang Jianping, director of the International Cooperation Office of the Institute of foreign economic studies of the national development and Reform Commission, believes that due to the close relationship between China's economy and the global economy, the withdrawal from Europe has led to a sharp fall in the exchange rates of the pound and the euro, severe fluctuations in the global capital market, and the economies of the UK and the EU are facing recession, which will affect the demand for Chinese products in the UK and even the European market

in addition, the rise of trade protectionism has increased resistance to China's exports since this year. Xie Yaxuan said that in the case of the continued downturn in Global trade, the rise of trade protectionism in developed countries may suppress China's exports to developed countries. Since the beginning of this year, Europe, the United States and Japan have launched anti-dumping against China's steel, highlighting that under the background of sluggish global demand, the concept of free trade has weakened, trade protectionism has significantly increased, and China's exports to developed countries may be difficult to significantly improve in the short term. The improvement of the economy of resource countries and the drive of foreign direct investment may be an important supporting factor for China's exports in the second half of the year

power and pressure coexist

although the pressure does not decrease, on the whole, exports still have some power support in the second half of the year

Xie Yaxuan said that exports in the second half of the year were both resistance and impetus. The "the Belt and Road" is expected to gradually become an important factor supporting exports. The "the Belt and Road" has opened two channels for China's exports. First, investment and construction in border countries have expanded their domestic demand and created channel advantages for Chinese enterprises to provide the equipment, raw materials and products they need; Second, after the establishment of economic cooperation, the countries along the line have opened up space for China's future export of consumer goods and labor-intensive products

Xie Yaxuan said that from another perspective, in recent years, China's non-financial foreign direct investment has indeed shown a leading and driving role in exports, which also confirms the driving effect of the "the Belt and Road" on exports. Since the beginning of this year, China's outward investment has increased significantly, with a cumulative monthly outward investment of US $73.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 61.9%, which is expected to promote the improvement of exports in the second half of the year

the leading role of the free trade zone in China's export has also become increasingly obvious. Taking the China ROK free trade zone as an example, the signing and implementation of the China ROK free trade agreement has played a positive role in promoting bilateral economic and trade exchanges between China and the ROK. According to the survey and statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, 50% of the enterprises surveyed said that their exports to the ROK have increased or substantially increased after the agreement came into force; 57% of the enterprises surveyed reported an increase or a substantial increase in the number of inquiries or orders

shendanyang, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, said recently that in the face of multiple adverse effects, the signing of the China ROK free trade agreement has led the United States in the chemical industry to launch a double anti dumping investigation on China's tires. Since, the scale of China ROK bilateral trade has not decreased significantly. The Ministry of commerce is optimistic about the further growth of China ROK trade in the second half of the year

Chi Fulin, President of China (Hainan) reform and Development Research Institute and vice president of China Economic System Reform Research Association, suggested that China should take the "the Belt and Road" as the carrier to start a new round of free trade zone construction and oppose trade protectionism. It is suggested to establish multilateral, bilateral, regional and global free trade zones along the "the Belt and Road", establish energy economic circles with some central European countries, and build tourism economic circles with Asian and European countries

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