The focus of the hottest production cost moves dow

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The focus of production costs has shifted downward, and the increase of Shanghai aluminum may be limited.

although the recovery of demand and the improvement of the macro atmosphere in March have supported the aluminum price, it is worth noting that most of the aluminum prices have not stopped falling due to the long-term resonance aluminum oxide and prebaked anode prices generated by its structure, which will improve the profitability of electrolytic aluminum enterprises, thus stimulating some electrolytic aluminum enterprises to resume production, and the situation of excess supply in the aluminum market will remain unchanged. At present, it is the peak season for downstream consumption in the aluminum market, but the decline in production costs may limit the increase in aluminum prices

the macro atmosphere improved

in the macro aspect, in March, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.5, rising above the boom and bust line, with a month on month increase of 1.3. From the perspective of sharing, the production PMI was 52.7, which also rose above the boom and bust line, with a month on month increase of 3.2. The PMI of new export orders was 47.1, below the boom and bust line, but increased by 1.9 month on month. In March, PPI was 0.4% year-on-year, rebounding from 0.1% of the previous value, hitting a three-month high, unchanged from the expected 0.4%. In march2019, M2 money supply was 8.6% year-on-year, 8.2% higher than the expected value. In March, RMB loans increased by 1690billion yuan, with an expected value of 1250billion yuan. According to preliminary statistics, the increment of social financing scale in the first quarter totaled 8.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.34 trillion yuan over the same period last year. From the macro data, there are signs of macroeconomic recovery. With the gradual implementation of the policy of tax reduction and fee reduction, the consumer side may continue to recover, and the demand of aluminum market will be boosted

the rising trend of processing fee is obvious.

in March, the inventory began to decline continuously. As of April 12, the aluminum futures inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange was 448909 tons, down 89133 tons from March 1

in terms of social inventory, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum also continued to decline. As of April 11, SMM counted that the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum totaled 1.636 million tons, a decrease of 5000 tons compared with last Thursday

according to SMM research, thanks to the stimulus of tax reduction, tight supply and good demand, the aluminum rod processing fee has increased significantly since March this year. The aluminum rod processing fee in Shandong, Henan, Guangdong and Wuxi has risen to varying degrees, especially in Guangdong, where the price rise is the most obvious Φ Take 90 aluminum rods as an example. In early March, the processing fee per ton of aluminum rods was still around 360 yuan/ton, but by early April, it had risen to around 660 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 83.33%

the profit level of electrolytic aluminum industry recovered

as of April 12, the average price of domestic alumina was 2655 yuan/ton, down 103.34 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of March. The average spot price of 5500k thermal coal around Bohai Sea was 579 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from the beginning of March

the average price of prebaked anode was 3451.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 153.75 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of March. According to SMM, the current commercial anode price has no obvious support at both supply and demand ends. On the supply side, the price of petroleum coke remained low. Except for some refineries in Shandong Province whose prices rose slightly due to inventory fluctuations, the average price of petroleum coke in petrochemical and other refineries fell month on month in March. The demand side has not improved significantly. At present, most electrolytic aluminum enterprises purchase on demand. In terms of price, after the game between Weiqiao prebaked anode basic purchase price and carbon enterprises in April, the spot exchange price continued to drop by 150 yuan/ton and 3030 yuan/ton. After removing the impact of tax reduction, the actual decline was nearly 70 yuan/ton. According to SMM, some electrolytic aluminum enterprises also have the demand to reduce costs. With reference to Weiqiao prices, it is expected that the pre baked anodes in various regions will be reduced by varying degrees in April

the average price of aluminum fluoride was 9475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1100 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of March. The continuous decline of raw material prices has also changed the profitability of the electrolytic aluminum industry. The uneven installation of the first main engine will generate friction between the working piston and the working cylinder

the average production cost of electrolytic aluminum was 13209.55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 364.7 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of March. The average profit of electrolytic aluminum is 630.45 yuan/ton, which is 644.7 yuan/ton higher than that at the beginning of March. At present, the production cost of electrolytic aluminum is the second lowest in five years, and the profit level of electrolytic aluminum is the third highest in five years

however, it is worth noting that there are many alumina projects put into operation this year, such as Guodian investment Sichuan project, Dongfang xifugu project, etc. the alumina supply will return to excess, and the alumina price will be under pressure. In addition, the improvement of the profit level of electrolytic aluminum enterprises but the lack of combustion capacity of many landfills will also stimulate some enterprises to resume production. Overall, the situation of excess supply of electrolytic aluminum remains unchanged, and the aluminum price will still be under pressure in the medium term

the short-term suppression of the strong US dollar

the short-term international macro atmosphere remained stable, but the recent macro data of the United States showed good performance. For example, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits will reach a year-and-a-half low of 49 encoder, and the PPI increased by 0.3% compared with the previous month, all of which eased the market's concern about the U.S. economic recession to a certain extent. The strong US dollar index will put pressure on Lun aluminum, while the price of Shanghai aluminum is relatively strong, which will have a negative impact on China's aluminum exports. As of April 11, the average export cost of aluminum profiles was 14505.63 yuan/ton, up 230.86 yuan/ton from the beginning of March; The export profit was 1246.42 yuan/ton, a decrease of 722.48 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of March

to sum up, the demand picks up, the inventory continues to decline, which is good for the aluminum price, but the prices of raw materials such as alumina and prebaked anode have not stopped falling, which significantly improves the profits of the electrolytic aluminum industry. In the later stage, it may stimulate the willingness of electrolytic aluminum enterprises to resume production, which is bad for the aluminum price. It is expected that the short-term oscillation of Shanghai aluminum is strong, and there may be obvious pressure above 14000 yuan/ton

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