The hottest PMI data hit an 18 month high, and the

2022-10-20
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PMI data hit an 18 month high, and the manufacturing industry improved to enhance confidence in transformation

due to the impact of local debt, property market regulation and tail raising factors, the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of this year may be slightly reversed, but it is enough to ensure the realization of a number of economic operation goals set by the government at the beginning of the year. Close to the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, comprehensive reform plans, including economic structural transformation, are highly expected. The reform theme will continue to release policy dividends. It is intended to promote China's economic growth and enhance confidence in structural transformation, which is beneficial in the medium and long term

China's manufacturing environment is stable and improving

since June this year, China's industrial manufacturing index has experienced growth and recovery to varying degrees, corresponding to the economic data such as official and HSBC manufacturing (PMI) in October, which have successively hit new highs in the recent period. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the official PMI index in October was 51.4%, which was better than the previous value and the expected value respectively, and broke the highest record in 18 months; In October, the final value of HSBC PMI was 50.9, which was the same as the preview value, the highest in seven months, and stood at more than 50% of the boom and bust line for three consecutive months. Through horizontal and vertical data comparison, it is found that the PMI index in October is continuing the positive growth momentum in the past four months, and is consistent with the conclusion given by Li Keqiang's economic index in September

looking at the above strong data performance, we can see that: first, the overall environment of domestic industrial manufacturing continues to show a stable and positive situation, which is conducive to the smooth realization of a number of economic operation task goals set by the government at the beginning of the year, so that the GDP growth rate, employment level and other regulatory indicators do not slip out of the lower limit; Second, large and medium-sized enterprises have enjoyed more policy advantages in terms of resources, technology and capital, but have achieved the goal of reducing DC power consumption per ton of aluminum by 500 kwh; The company's technology center was named as the national recognized enterprise technology center by five national ministries and commissions; Led the establishment of Henan high-efficiency aluminum based new material innovation center, while the development bottlenecks faced by small and medium-sized micro enterprises represented by HSBC PMI index are increasing, and the prospects of production and operation activities of relevant enterprises are also unclear

from the sub item data, the PMI production index in October increased significantly by 1.5% to 54.4% compared with the previous month, becoming the main factor driving the upward trend of the PMI index. In addition to the production index, the contribution rate of other factors to the PMI index is relatively low, indicating that the production expansion behavior of enterprises still plays an important role in economic activities. Among them, the raw material inventory index increased slightly, the purchase price index fell slightly, and the new order index fell month on month. At the same time, it reflects that the stock replenishment power of domestic enterprises tends to be exhausted, and the growth expectation of downstream demand gradually weakens. After the traditional peak season of "golden nine and silver ten", it is expected that the manufacturing activities of industrial enterprises may tend to slow down, and a series of economic data such as GDP, PMI and PPI in the fourth quarter of this year are expected to continue to linger in the transition stage from low to good

the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter may fall slightly

the overall environment of China's industrial manufacturing industry continued to be stable and positive in October. The PMI production index became the main driving force. The supply link of enterprise production was significantly accelerated, but the growth expectation of downstream demand link gradually weakened. Expanding the investment behavior of enterprises will certainly help the domestic economic growth show the expectation of recovery, but it is necessary to be extra vigilant for industrial enterprises with excess capacity to speed up the process of capacity release, which may even undermine the overall balance of market supply and demand since the third quarter of this year, and become an unstable factor in the recovery and growth of GDP in the fourth quarter

as we all know, GDP is driven by the troika of investment, consumption, import and export. At different time stages, the economic growth mode has its own emphasis. After the two major economic crises of American subprime mortgage and European debt, China's economic growth momentum has always been complacent. Not only has the situation of foreign trade plummeted, but also the 4trillion investment stimulus plan is full of dangers. How to effectively expand domestic demand for investment consumption has become one of the main tasks of the current government

in the first three quarters, China's GDP growth showed an overall trend of bottoming out and rebounding, with quarterly growth rates of 7.7%, 7.5% and 7.8% respectively. In the fourth quarter, POM is often used in China's economic pipe fittings, which is expected to strive to achieve positive expansion under the expected background of a stable and good overall domestic manufacturing environment. Due to the common element of double counting among local provinces and cities, the total GDP of each province and city in the first three quarters has significantly exceeded the total GDP of the country. In recent years, the National Bureau of statistics needs to eliminate more and more water when accounting data. Taking into account the high local debt, good political performance and poor regulation of the property market, it is expected that after the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, various macro-control measures such as real estate will be strengthened. In addition, due to the backwardness of the mathematical statistics of GDP last year, it is expected that the domestic economic growth rate may encounter a slight correction in the fourth quarter, and ensure the realization of the annual economic growth target of 7.5%

structural transformation promotes medium and long-term economic growth

combined with a series of economic data such as GDP and PMI, the electromagnetic directional valve continues to make predictions in the form of power on. China's economic growth shows some signs of stopping falling in the short term. The transformation policies of stabilizing growth, adjusting structure and promoting reform are expected to promote the domestic economy to achieve medium and long-term growth expectations. The economic system innovation brought about by Xi Li's new deal emphasizes that structural transformation promotes economic benefits, weakens the strength of financial investment and credit, and makes GDP increment get rid of the inherent stimulation and expansion mode. The redistribution of social resources led by the structural transformation policy will continue to help China's rapid economic growth in the future

close to the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, comprehensive reform plans, including economic structural transformation, are expected to carry out reforms in housing, urbanization, income distribution and government functions, and outline the road map and timetable of the reform theme. By changing the functions of government departments in economic work, China's economic growth will shift from investment driven to consumption and service dependent demand, and use structural transformation to achieve a new balance. In order to effectively expand investment domestic demand, urbanization will undoubtedly become an important driving force for economic growth to create products that meet the current and future performance requirements, which will help promote industrial upgrading and improve innovation capacity. The theme of reform is full of every field of China's economic construction, which will inevitably cause pain in the short term, but it is expected to have a sustained positive impact in the medium and long term

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